Corral That Bomb Testing (C.T.B.T.) Part 1: Politics
Travis | Mar 17, 2009 |
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Part 1 of 4
Also see:
Corral That Bomb Testing Part 2 – Messaging
Corral That Bomb Testing Part 3 – Verification
Corral That Bomb Testing Part 4 – Cheaters
After years in the wilderness under George W. Bush and Republican-controlled congresses, it appears that ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is back on the agenda. During his campaign, President Barack Obama pledged to work for CTBT ratification and “seek its earliest possible entry into force.” With a new administration at the helm, the prospects for U.S. ratification are better than ever.
For arms control advocates, this state of affairs is akin to Ahab spotting Moby Dick off the starboard side. Many pro-CTBT activists and analysts bear the scars of the failed ratification effort in 1999, when the Senate fell short of approving the treaty with only 48 votes in favor and 51 against.
In 1999’s CTBT vote, Republicans controlled a Senate that had only 45 Democrats, all of whom voted “Yay” except for Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) who voted “Present.” The 44 Democrats voting in favor were joined by four Republicans: John Chafee (RI), Jim Jeffords (VT), Gordon Smith (OR), and Arlen Specter (PA).
Notice that of the CTBT-supporting Republicans, only Specter is still in the Senate. And because he faces a stiff primary challenge in 2010 from former Rep. (and current Club for Growth president) Pat Toomey, Specter may have to lurch rightward until his reelection next year.
Today, an expanded Democratic majority in the Senate stands ready to vote in favor of the long-stalled treaty. Which means this is now The New CTBT Math:
56/57 Senate Democrats likely to support (57 including yet-to-be-seated Al Franken)
2 Senate Independents likely to support (Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders)
1 Senate Republican who voted “Yay” in 1999 (Specter)
= 60 votes maximum
To reach 67 in the Senate, arms controllers will need to convince a minimum of seven Senate Republicans to vote in favor. For those Republicans who were in the Senate in 1999 and voted against the CTBT, reversing their position and voting in favor this time around will present a political challenge. Moreover, among the 16 Republicans elected since 1999, only two – Senators Bob Corker (TN) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) – seem even remotely persuadable, with the remainder mostly representing the extreme right wing of the party.
See that White Whale swimming away? How about after I remind you that only three Senate Republicans were willing to break ranks and join Democrats to pass President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus bill last month? If they wouldn’t vote for the stimulus, will they be willing to vote for the CTBT?
While securing seven votes in the Republican Senate caucus will be no small feat, I think it is possible if the Obama administration and arms controllers do three things. Read about them in Corral That Bomb Testing Part 2 – Messaging
Nukes on a Blog, Congress (all tags)
