Things to Look for in Biden’s Speech Today

In Washington today at 1 PM eastern time, Vice President Joe Biden will give a major address on U.S. nuclear weapons policy at National Defense University. According to press reports, the speech will complement Biden’s January 29 WSJ op-ed by: 1) elaborating on the rationale behind the FY 2011 nuclear weapons budget increase; 2) previewing April’s Global Nuclear Security Summit and May’s NPT Review Conference; 3) explaining how advances in nuclear weapons science have delegitimized previous concerns about the CTBT; and 4) debunking the straw man criticism that envisioning a future without nuclear weapons somehow negates concrete initiatives that advance U.S. security interests today, such as New START.

Here are three things to look for in Biden’s speech:

Co-opt or chastise? – Does Biden justify the administration’s agenda by co-opting the political middle (i.e. moderates/graybeards) or by chastising critics as out of touch with 21st century security challenges? Or neither? This will forecast how the administration plans to handle New START ratification a few months from now.

Budget and the labs – It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see the FY 2011 nuclear weapons budget increase as “hush money” for the Obama administration’s arms control agenda. This makes for shrewd short-term tactics; however, it does not address the long-term challenges facing the labs on personnel, morale, and more. While we shouldn’t let the laboratory tail wag the U.S. foreign policy dog, let’s not pretend that Obama’s political opponents won’t exploit the labs’ challenges not only to pocket the FY 2011 budget increase, but also to demand more more more.

So, for Biden today: how does the FY 2011 budget increase tie into a long-term vision for what the labs should be doing in the 21st century? How can the administration’s priorities—nuclear reductions, nonproliferation, strategic stability—provide the labs with a reinvigorated sense of purpose?

International community and ED – If there was a flaw in Biden’s WSJ op-ed, it was that he avoided touting the administration’s approach to key allies. Not to carp when an 800 word op-ed doesn’t accomplish everything a 5,000 word essay could, but there is an international component to the administration’s agenda that goes beyond the Nuclear Summit and Review Conference. I’m talking about ED—no, not John Isaacs’s sweetest tie ever, but extended deterrence.

Mr. Veep: how will the Obama administration assure allies of the commitment of the U.S. nuclear umbrella while reducing its arsenal? Providing a positive answer to this question will demonstrate to key allies that the administration’s agenda is not being pursued unilaterally without considering our friends’ interests, too.

UPDATE 12:15 PM: You can watch the speech here or here.