Our new Senior Science Fellow Dr. Phil Coyle has a new article in the World Politics Review on U.S. nuclear test detection capabilities and why its important to sustain and improve them with our without the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Here's an excerpt:

The CTBT is not the only compelling reason for the U.S. to devote the necessary resources to nuclear test monitoring around the world, notwithstanding the constraints of “sequestration” or tight budgets generally. The nuclear test detection capabilities described by the NRC are indispensible with or without a CTBT. Given the world’s justifiable concern about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, for example, the U.S. should be sure that it maintains the ability to detect a surprise nuclear test by Tehran.

Read the whole thing here (sadly subscription only).

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT (all tags)

In my April Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists column, I examine the recently released National Academy of Sciences report on the technical and security issues related to the CTBT.  Here's the headline intro graf:

In 1996, the United States was the first country to sign the CTBT, but in 1999, the US Senate rejected the treaty. That year, Republicans who opposed the test ban did so largely on the grounds that the US nuclear deterrent cannot be maintained without testing and that the treaty is unverifiable. While the NAS report does not take a position on whether the United States should ratify the CTBT, it does conclude that the "United States is now better able to maintain a safe and effective nuclear stockpile and to monitor clandestine nuclear-explosion testing than at any time in the past." In other words, in this day and age, concerns about the maintenance of the stockpile and verification of the treaty are no longer compelling arguments. In short, the United States should ratify the CTBT as soon as possible: It has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

I've always believed that the national security case for the CTBT rests on three core foundations:

• The CTBT would make it more difficult for nuclear-armed states to improve their nuclear arsenals via nuclear testing. For example, a global ban on testing would make it more difficult for China, India, and Pakistan to develop the smaller warheads necessary to arm their ballistic missiles with multiple warheads. States could produce simple, less complicated nuclear weapons in the absence of testing, but the NAS report concludes US leaders “could respond equally well whether or not the CTBT were in force.”
  
• The United States has conducted 1,030 nuclear tests – more than all other nations combined – the last of which was in September 1992. Given the knowledge it has gleaned from this testing history, a permanent test ban would provide the United States with an enormous advantage relative to other nuclear-armed states.
  
• The CTBT would strengthen the US ability to deter and detect clandestine nuclear explosions.

The case for the CTBT is furthered strengthened by the fact that not only does the United States have no technical need to resume explosive testing, it has not conducted a nuclear test in 20 years and is unlikely to do so in the future. Thus, the United States must invest in the capabilities to sustain the stockpile in the absence of testing with our without the treaty.  The same goes for US monitoring capabilities: it must remain vigilant about the possibility of foreign nuclear tests with or without the treaty.

Sounds like a pretty good deal, no?

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists column (all tags)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 30, 2012

CONTACT: Bridget Nolan, Director of Communications, 707-287-5739; John Isaacs, Executive Director, 202-546-0795 ext 2222

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Hails National Academy of Sciences Report on Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Washington D.C.- The Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation today called the National Academy of Sciences report on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) “another important piece of evidence  confirming that the case for Senate approval of the treaty is stronger than ever.”

The announcement of the report, which evaluated the United States’ ability to maintain a safe and reliable nuclear weapons stockpile without nuclear testing and verify compliance with the treaty, stated “The United States is now in a better position than at any time in the past to maintain a safe and effective nuclear weapons stockpile without testing and to monitor clandestine nuclear testing abroad.”

The reported added: “Provided that sufficient resources and a national commitment to stockpile stewardship are in place, the committee judges that the United States has the technical capabilities to maintain a safe, secure, and reliable stockpile of nuclear weapons into the foreseeable future without nuclear-explosion testing.”

The report also stated: “The United States has technical capabilities to monitor nuclear explosions in four environments—underground, underwater, in the atmosphere and in space.”

The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992 after President George H.W. Bush signed a nuclear testing moratorium.

The United Nations General Assembly adopted the treaty in 1996. The treaty prohibits all nuclear test explosions and creates a robust international verification regime to buttress the existing national capabilities of state parties in ensuring compliance with the treaty. It was rejected by the U.S. Senate in 1999.

The treaty is critical to limit the ability of other countries to develop nuclear weapons or to improve the ones they already have. It also helps monitor illegal tests throughout the world.

As of February, 157 countries have ratified the agreement – not including the United States, China, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan and India.

John Isaacs, Center executive director, called on the Senate to take up the treaty in 2013. “The United States is keeping bad company with some of the worst nuclear proliferators in the world by not approving the treaty.”

Added Isaacs: “A growing number of military leaders and former nuclear laboratory directors agree that nuclear testing is a dangerous relic of the Cold War and isn’t in the best interests of the United States.”

Kingston Reif, the Center’s Director of Non-Proliferation, pointed out that the United States has been able to retain a safe, secure and reliable nuclear stockpile despite the absences of nuclear tests since 1992.

“The report confirms that the United States can maintain the safety, security, and reliability of its nuclear warheads without explosive testing,” said Reif. “Because the U.S. does not conduct nuclear tests and has no plans or the need to do so, it should take advantage of the security and political benefits that would come with ratification of the CTBT," he added.

Click here for a copy of the report.

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT (all tags)

September 24 marked the 15th anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Since then, little progress has been made on the treaty’s entry into force. In a creative attempt to ensure the permanence of some of the CTBT’s essential functions, some observers are calling on states to remove the provisional status of the treaty’s key institutions.

The CTBT has been signed by 182 nations and ratified by 155. However, it will not enter into force until the remaining nine states from the list of 44 so-called Annex 2 states have ratified the treaty, including the U.S. and China. Despite the CTBT not having entered into force, the treaty’s Preparatory Commission and Provisional Secretariat provide invaluable services to many countries through an extensive monitoring network which not only detects nuclear testing but also provides early warning for tsunamis and tracks the fallout from nuclear accidents.

In other words, the CTBT offers much more than a ban on nuclear testing.

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CTBT, Nukes on a Blog (all tags)

Happy International Day Against Nuclear Tests!  For a brilliant reminder of why a permanent legal ban on nuclear testing is vital, check out Daryl Kimball’s moving take over at Armscontrolnow.  

Looking for another nuclear testing-related item to put on your calendar?  
The “2011 Article XIV Conference” on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) will be held September 23 in New York.

Hosted by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, this will be seventh conference on the ratification and implementation of the CTBT (for background information our  site is chock full of CTBT resources, including a fact sheet here).  

The CTBT calls for an indefinite ban on all nuclear test explosions in all environments, to inhibit the research and development of new nuclear weapons. Since opening for signature in 1996, 182 states have signed the treaty and 154 have ratified it. However, before the treaty can “enter into force” (i.e. be made into international law) the 44 countries that possessed nuclear power reactors or research reactors at the time the treaty was negotiated have to sign and ratify the pact.  Nine of these countries still need to deposit their articles of ratification: China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Egypt, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, the United States of America, India and Pakistan.

Representatives from all countries are invited to participate in the conference – whether they have signed or ratified the treaty or not.  Those states that have already ratified the treaty use the conference to promote the treaty’s goals and urge states that have not done so to sign and ratify the treaty so as soon as possible.  They will also propose concrete measures to hasten entry into force, such as by urging countries with nuclear weapons research programs to refrain from developing new nuclear devices.

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT, UN, Arms Control (all tags)

Last week the Arms Control Association published an excellent rebuttal to the Heritage Foundation's recent uninformed musings on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).  Dadie Loh and I have been working on a response as well, and you can head over to the mothership for the final result.  A quick teaser:

Uncowed by its failure to convince the U.S. Senate and the American public to oppose the New START treaty, the Heritage Foundation is trying to gin up opposition to another international treaty that would greatly benefit U.S. national security: the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

The CTBT prohibits all nuclear test explosions and creates a robust international verification regime to buttress the existing national capabilities of state parties in ensuring compliance with the treaty.

A growing number of military leaders and former nuclear laboratory directors agree that nuclear testing is a dangerous relic of the Cold War and isn’t in the best interests of the U.S.

Because the U.S. does not conduct nuclear tests and has no plans or the need to do so, it should take advantage of the security and political benefits that would come with ratification of the CTBT. A permanent test ban would close off the one reliable avenue - nuclear testing - by which other states might develop new, sophisticated weapons and/or increase the lethality of already existing arsenals.

A legally binding prohibition on nuclear testing is particularly important in South Asia, where India and Pakistan continue to build up and modernize their nuclear forces. A test ban would help lessen the chances of a destabilizing arms race in the region – assuming the two countries agree to ratify the accord.

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT (all tags)

"The [Comprehensive Test Ban] treaty would further compromise our atrophied nuclear arsenal (which Obama isn't sufficiently modernizing) by ending our ability to test our aged stockpile if necessary. (We haven't tested since 1992.)" [emphasis mine.]

Peter Brookes, Heritage Foundation Senior Fellow, June 9, 2011

The spending measure approved [by the Republican-controlled House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee] in Thursday's mark-up session would grant about $7.1 billion for that work, according to an initial breakdown of the appropriations bill obtained by Global Security Newswire. That is a decrease of slightly less than $500 million, or 7 percent, from the administration's request, the document shows. [emphasis mine.]

"House Panel Cuts More Than $1 Billion in Nuclear Agency Funds," Global Security Newswire, June 3, 2011

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT, quote of the day, Congress (all tags)

Yesterday Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher delivered a speech at the Arms Control Association's annual meeting on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).  Tasucher emphasized the vital national security importance of the treaty and indicated that the administration intends to step up its efforts to educate the Senate and the public about the treaty.

Full text below the jump.

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Nukes on a Blog, CTBT (all tags)

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- Ban Treaty (CTBT) opened for signature 14 years ago today on 24 September 1996. Signed by 182 of the UN’s 192 Member States, the Treaty is designed to constrain the research and development of nuclear weapons by banning all nuclear test explosions in all environments, indefinitely. Given the undeniable security and non-proliferation benefits of the CTBT, it should come as no surprise that state parties to the NPT reaffirmed the vital importance of the treaty’s entry into force at the recent May 2010 NPT Review Conference in New York. But after fourteen years, how much longer will the world have to wait?

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CTBT, Nukes on a Blog, UN, nuclear weapons testing (all tags)

Reigning national debate champions Michigan State University will face Emory University for what promises to be a lively debate on U.S. CTBT on June 10.  Typically showcasing the views of renowned nuclear weapons experts, this specially organized PONI debate will put some of the nation’s brightest and sharpest young thinkers head to head in front of an expert judging panel (consisting of DoD and DoE officials) and audience.  The event builds on the momentum generated by the intercollegiate policy debate topic of 2009, “Reducing Reliance on Nuclear Weapons Policy”, which saw over ten thousand two-hour debates on the subject.

With debaters having spent hours and hours researching and strategizing in preparation, we can expect to hear some fresh viewpoints and new ideas on how to get CTBT ratified as well as the likely arguments that will be employed to block ratification.  And in being joined by an expert panel and audience, the students will for their part get an opportunity to road-test ideas and receive useful feedback.....  

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debate, CTBT, PONI, nuclear, nuclear testing (all tags)