I was asked to comment yesterday on the recent Washington Post story detailing a study by a group of Georgetown University students that uses some questionable sources (including Wikipedia and the Chinese version of "24") to conclude that China's nuclear arsenal may be much larger than well-established estimates.  

See my response and The Situation Room's piece on the matter below. And for more information on the issue, check out Ulrika and Kingston's post from earlier this month.

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Nukes on a Blog, China (all tags)

By Kingston Reif and Ulrika Grufman

Last week, Brett Stephens of the Wall Street Journal, published a one-sided piece about China’s ongoing nuclear force modernization, specifically its construction of 3,000 miles of underground tunnels.  According to Stephens, these efforts suggest that:

1.    There is good reason to believe that China has far more than the approximately 250 nuclear weapons most experts believe it possesses
2.    China may be seeking the capability to “win” a nuclear exchange with the U.S.
3.    The U.S. should be wary of further bilateral nuclear reductions with Russia

The Carnegie Endowment’s James Acton has already done an excellent job of exposing the tenuous assumptions that inform Stephens’ analysis and outlining the many ways in which Stephens’ fails to assess the motivations behind China’s nuclear modernization.

As Acton notes, the U.S., which possesses nearly 2,000 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and many more in reserve, would have little to fear even if China did have far more nuclear weapons than the approximately 250 warheads it is believed to possess.  China on the other hand, does have understandable grounds for believing that the U.S. intention is to undermine the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent, given that the U.S. is improving the lethality of its nuclear forces and refuses to categorically state that it does not seek to negate China’s arsenal.

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Nukes on a Blog, China, nuclear modernization (all tags)

... Now we know why... On May 26, 2011, North Korean state-run media KCNA reports Happines Index among 203 countries and grades out of 100 points:

1. China (100)

2. North Korea (98)

3. Cuba (93)

4. Iran (88)

5. Venezuela (85)

152. South Korea (18)

203. USA

* Released by a Chinese source, picked up by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo

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North Korea, Happiness Index, USA, South Korea, Iran, Cuba, China (all tags)

In case you've missed it:

A UN sanctions committee report submitted to the Security Council over the weekend suggests North Korea and Iran have been regularly sharing ballistic missile technology via air cargo in violation of UN sanctions against Pyongyang. The New York Times reported that China is delaying the publication of the report.

Here are some excerpts of the unpublished report disclosed by Reuters :

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North Korea, Iran, China, ballistic missile technology, Nukes on a Blog (all tags)

China’s proposal for “emergency consultations” among envoys to the Six-Party Talks in early December is reminiscent of an all-too familiar recent past. Beijing claims the meeting is to prevent further escalation between the two Koreas. But don’t get your hopes up just yet.

Wu Dawei, chief Chinese nuclear negotiator on CCTV:

"The Chinese side, after careful studies, proposes having emergency consultations among the nuclear envoys in early December in Beijing to exchange views on major issues of concern to the parties at present…”

Such words should be cautiously analyzed because it may be a veiled attempt to outwardly resume the Six-Party Talks but, in fact, evade any responsibility to influence North Korea regarding Pyongyang’s latest two attacks on the South. Beijing appears to be trying to elicit pre-Six Party Talks before the real thing. Click "Read More."

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China, North Korea, Emergency 6-Party Talks, Yeonpyeong Island attack, South Korea (all tags)

Honestly, I'm a little ashamed of myself for spreading this past the pages of the Heritage Foundation's 33 minutes blog... but I couldn't help it.  Big hat tip to Page for sending this along.  

There are so many things to say but, well, let's just let it speak for itself...

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Nukes on a Blog, Missile Defense, Iran Watch, China, Russia, Heritage, New START (all tags)

Chinese envoy Wu Dawei met with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul on August 26th to discuss the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament.  But the meeting merely reaffirmed that the gap in their perception is still wide among the parties.

Wu reportedly proposed resuming nuclear negotiations in three phases, according to South Korean media:

1. Hold U.S.-North Korea direct talks

2.Hold unofficial, preliminary six-party talks privately behind closed doors

3. Hold official six-party talks

Wu reportedly said Beijing and Pyongyang have agreed on this method, and China is now trying to convince Seoul and later Tokyo, Washington and Russia to accept the plan.  The Chinese envoy’s trip coincided with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s North Korea visit and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s China tour.

Reaction to the Proposal?

Seoul and Washington have maintained that Pyongyang must take responsibility over sinking the Cheonan before resuming six-way negotiations.  Many observers believe that Pyongyang is trying to avoid responsibility with China’s help by dangling the possibility of resuming nuclear talks.

Beijing’s handling of the Cheonan incident has upset the other members of the six-party talks (minus Russia). So it may not be easy for China, the chair of the six-party talks, to coax Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. It remains to be seen what card Beijing plays to win the others over.

IF Pyongyang does have the will to denuclearize and proves this with concrete actions, then it will be difficult for Seoul and Washington to endlessly demand an apology before resuming the six-party talks.

The Gap: Still Wide

The problem, which has been so since the first nuclear crisis, is the wide gap in perception between the two sides. On one side, Pyongyang continues to deny its involvement in Cheonan, insist on the lifting of sanctions and insist on signing a peace treaty before denuclearization. On the other side, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo demand denuclearization steps first.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are unified in their policy and approach toward North Korea, which has been a rare phenomenon in the past. On the other side is China and North Korea. It is unclear what hidden cards will be played to break the current impasse.

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China, Wu Da-wei, South Korea, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Cheonan, six-party talks, peace treaty (all tags)

Former President Jimmy Carter has departed Pyongyang to return home with missionary Aijalon Mahli Gomes who was sentenced to eight years of hard labor and fined $700,000 for illegal entry into North Korea, according to a statement released by the Carter Center. "At the request of President Carter, and for humanitarian purposes, Mr. Gomes was granted amnesty by the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-Il," the statement said. Carter's "private and humanitarian" mission was accomplished, but history has shown that trips by former U.S. presidents to free hostages are hardly ever entirely private and humanitarian.

Kim Jong-il is currently in China (read previous post) and has reportedly continued his tour without heading back home while Carter had reportedly extended his stay in Pyongyang apparently waiting to meet Kim. Some sources say Carter did not sit down with Kim Jong-il as widely expected. One way to interpret this phenonemon is that Kim intentionally did not meet, and never wanted to meet, Carter. If true, then why? Here are some possible scenarios (of course partly based on speculation):

1. Kim Jong-il may have wanted to send a clear message to  Washington: It will also play hardball. In other words, in the face of a tough U.S. that continues to harden its policy of containment toward Pyongyang with additonal sanctions, the regime wanted to snub the U.S. by ignoring a country's most senior-level visitor, a former president; or...

2. Kim Jong-il may have concluded that he would not be able to get the most out of playing the "Carter card" consdering Carter's role and status in relation to the Obama administration. He may have concluded that Carter is not, in reality, Obama's envoy; or...

3. He sees the current geopolitical dynamic as "U.S.-South Korea" vs. "China-North Korea."

If history serves as a lesson in explaining current events and forecasting the future, it may be safe to predict that the current state of tension between the U.S. and North Korea will continue for the time being. Carter's first trip to North Korea led to dialgoue between Washington and Pyongyang after meeting the late founder Kim Il-sung. It could be argued that dialogue is unforeseeable in the near future since Kim Jong-il did not meet Carter this time.

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Jimmy Carter, Kim Jong-il, Gomes, Pyongyang, China (all tags)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is reportedly in China and there's speculation his son Kim Jong-un, heir apparent, is traveling with him. Kim Jong-il's China trips are usually confirmed after he returns to the North out of security reasons, but officials have reportedly said they detected signs of his movement. It is also his second visit to China in the same year, and his last one was in May.

Kim's reported trip coincides with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's in Pyongyang (read previous post) to secure the release of an American missionary. Carter was widely expected to sit down with Kim, and it is unclear whether that meeting was held before Kim departed for China. IF Carter and Kim did not meet, then it may be because Kim felt a China trip to be much more urgent.

Why is Kim Jong-il in China? When analysing North Korea, it is always easy to speculate than offer concrete analysis based on confirmed facts because the regime is in a black box. Still, we can do some "brain exercises" and think of possible scenarios:

1. The most widely speculated reason: Perhaps to solidfy Beijing's recognition support for his youngest son Kim Jong-un as his successor since Kim's health is said to be fast deteriorating and ahead of a rare and crucial leadership meeting of the ruling Workers' Party. There has been much speculation that Kim may announce his successor at that meeting. Many experts have speculated they need China's seal of approval for his successor, but some experts argue that Pyongyang does not require Beijing's approval on how to run its internal affairs; or...

2. Kim Jong-il realized the flood crisis is more serious than expected and needs China's help; or...

3. He needs medical treatment in China because of he is said to be very ill; or...

4. He wanted to go down memory lane in China and pass down family stories to his son, heir-apparent Kim Jong-un, before passing away because of his ailing health. Kim visited the middle school his father and nation founder Kim Il-sung attended, which was something he reportedly wanted to do for years.

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Kim Jong-il, China, surprise trip, successor, Kim Jong-un, Carter (all tags)

It was reported at the end of last month that China successfully shot down one of its redundant satellites in January.    Allegedly, the firing took place at nearly the same time as a successful Chinese missile interception test conducted on January 11.   Given the reaction to its 2007 launch, some observers have suggested that the recent launch may have been ordered as a means for Beijing to vent displeasure over recent Taiwanese efforts to buy the Patriot missile defense system from the U.S.  However, others claim that the time needed to prepare for such a launch makes this notion unlikely.  Either way, the news is further evidence of continuing Chinese efforts to boost their space based military capabilities, and given the outcry following the last test, has probably not been met with cheers from countries possessing satellite capabilities.

In context of this news, Beijing’s official position on space might come as a surprise to some:

“The Chinese government has all along regarded the space industry as an integral part of the state's comprehensive development strategy, and upheld that the exploration and utilization of outer space should be for peaceful purposes and benefit the whole of mankind.”

China’s official position is probably guided by the concerns over the prospect of space based missile defense systems which might one day render its relatively few numbers of ICBMs useless.  However, just as in 2007, China risks losing legitimacy in this regard when it destroys its own satellites....

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China, satellite, Security Matters (all tags)