The first Pyongyang-Moscow summit in nine years - aimed largely at deepening bilateral economic ties - concluded with no news on the nuclear front. Based on the available information reported on the August 24th summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Pyongyang merely reiterated its basic position without clear signs of taking any steps forward toward denuclearization.

However, it is difficult to make a complete and definitive assessment since the summit results were carried by the media, absent official word from North Korea. Closed door deals, if they exist, remain veiled. The other parties to the Six Party Talks have yet to be debriefed on the summit while chief nuclear negotiators from Seoul and Beijing are slated to meet on Thursday, August 25th.

At this point, only an initial and limited assessment can be made based on preliminary information delivered by the media: (Click “Read More”)

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea, Russia, Kim Jong-il, Dmitry Medvedev, Six Party Talks (all tags)

Speculation is running high in the international media that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may sit down with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Japan’s Kyodo News expects the summit to take place on Thursday, June 30th in the Far East city of Vladivostok while other reports say July 1st.  Media reports have also quoted Russian officials as saying preparations are underway for a summit, though Medvedev’s counterpart was not disclosed. President Medvedev is reportedly set to be in Vladivostok to check on preparations for the 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting.

If realized, it would be the first time in nine years the North Korean leader traveled to Russia for a summit with its Cold War ally with whom relations have frayed over the years.

Korea watchers are closely following Kim’s reported travel plans because the expected summit would come on the heels of a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan on June 24th during which the allies reaffirmed that inter-Korea relations must be improved before the resumption of Six Party Talks. Seoul officials say that since the envisioned inter-Korean denuclearization discussion has been delinked from seeking an apology for the sinking of the Cheonan and shelling of Yeongpyeong Island, it is now Pyongyang’s turn to come forward.

It is highly anticipated that economic issues would top the expected Pyongyang-Moscow summit, but would still have implications on the Six Party diplomatic front.

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North Korea, Russia, Kim Jong-il, Dmitry Medvedev (all tags)

The Egyptian revolution has raised hopes of democracy in the region and beyond. But North Korea is a different story. Click here for the full story or click read more below.

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North Korea, Egypt, Mubarak, Kim Jong-il, 70th birthday, nuclear (all tags)

Kim Jong-il glances over at his son and heir Kim Jong-un with concerned eyes as they watch the military parade marking the 65th Anniversary of the Workers' Party. Click picture for better view. 2010.10.10

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Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, heir, successor, North Korea (all tags)

As you know the buzz is that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's youngest son Kim Jong-un (age 27 or 28) has just been promoted to four-star general. This essentially makes it official that he will succeed the ailing Dear Leader. I've put up an analysis of the latest military promotion on the Center's webiste - click here for the full story.

However, my analysis does not include the newest update: Kim Jong-un has also received senior political posts in the communist party - this was reported by the North's state-run KCNA rather late (early Wednesday morning Korea time, late Tuesday evening  EST). When my article was written, there was no word of this until hours later after work when I was at home casually browing through KCNA's webiste. They dated it "September 28" even though it appeared online on September 29 Korea time. Anyway, this portion will be updated Wednesday with an analysis on the Center's website so stay tuned!  

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Kim Jong-un, four-star general, successor, heir apparent, Kim Jong-il, Kim Kyoung-hui (all tags)

Chinese envoy Wu Dawei met with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul on August 26th to discuss the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament.  But the meeting merely reaffirmed that the gap in their perception is still wide among the parties.

Wu reportedly proposed resuming nuclear negotiations in three phases, according to South Korean media:

1. Hold U.S.-North Korea direct talks

2.Hold unofficial, preliminary six-party talks privately behind closed doors

3. Hold official six-party talks

Wu reportedly said Beijing and Pyongyang have agreed on this method, and China is now trying to convince Seoul and later Tokyo, Washington and Russia to accept the plan.  The Chinese envoy’s trip coincided with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s North Korea visit and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s China tour.

Reaction to the Proposal?

Seoul and Washington have maintained that Pyongyang must take responsibility over sinking the Cheonan before resuming six-way negotiations.  Many observers believe that Pyongyang is trying to avoid responsibility with China’s help by dangling the possibility of resuming nuclear talks.

Beijing’s handling of the Cheonan incident has upset the other members of the six-party talks (minus Russia). So it may not be easy for China, the chair of the six-party talks, to coax Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. It remains to be seen what card Beijing plays to win the others over.

IF Pyongyang does have the will to denuclearize and proves this with concrete actions, then it will be difficult for Seoul and Washington to endlessly demand an apology before resuming the six-party talks.

The Gap: Still Wide

The problem, which has been so since the first nuclear crisis, is the wide gap in perception between the two sides. On one side, Pyongyang continues to deny its involvement in Cheonan, insist on the lifting of sanctions and insist on signing a peace treaty before denuclearization. On the other side, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo demand denuclearization steps first.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are unified in their policy and approach toward North Korea, which has been a rare phenomenon in the past. On the other side is China and North Korea. It is unclear what hidden cards will be played to break the current impasse.

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China, Wu Da-wei, South Korea, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Cheonan, six-party talks, peace treaty (all tags)

Former President Jimmy Carter has departed Pyongyang to return home with missionary Aijalon Mahli Gomes who was sentenced to eight years of hard labor and fined $700,000 for illegal entry into North Korea, according to a statement released by the Carter Center. "At the request of President Carter, and for humanitarian purposes, Mr. Gomes was granted amnesty by the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-Il," the statement said. Carter's "private and humanitarian" mission was accomplished, but history has shown that trips by former U.S. presidents to free hostages are hardly ever entirely private and humanitarian.

Kim Jong-il is currently in China (read previous post) and has reportedly continued his tour without heading back home while Carter had reportedly extended his stay in Pyongyang apparently waiting to meet Kim. Some sources say Carter did not sit down with Kim Jong-il as widely expected. One way to interpret this phenonemon is that Kim intentionally did not meet, and never wanted to meet, Carter. If true, then why? Here are some possible scenarios (of course partly based on speculation):

1. Kim Jong-il may have wanted to send a clear message to  Washington: It will also play hardball. In other words, in the face of a tough U.S. that continues to harden its policy of containment toward Pyongyang with additonal sanctions, the regime wanted to snub the U.S. by ignoring a country's most senior-level visitor, a former president; or...

2. Kim Jong-il may have concluded that he would not be able to get the most out of playing the "Carter card" consdering Carter's role and status in relation to the Obama administration. He may have concluded that Carter is not, in reality, Obama's envoy; or...

3. He sees the current geopolitical dynamic as "U.S.-South Korea" vs. "China-North Korea."

If history serves as a lesson in explaining current events and forecasting the future, it may be safe to predict that the current state of tension between the U.S. and North Korea will continue for the time being. Carter's first trip to North Korea led to dialgoue between Washington and Pyongyang after meeting the late founder Kim Il-sung. It could be argued that dialogue is unforeseeable in the near future since Kim Jong-il did not meet Carter this time.

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Jimmy Carter, Kim Jong-il, Gomes, Pyongyang, China (all tags)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is reportedly in China and there's speculation his son Kim Jong-un, heir apparent, is traveling with him. Kim Jong-il's China trips are usually confirmed after he returns to the North out of security reasons, but officials have reportedly said they detected signs of his movement. It is also his second visit to China in the same year, and his last one was in May.

Kim's reported trip coincides with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's in Pyongyang (read previous post) to secure the release of an American missionary. Carter was widely expected to sit down with Kim, and it is unclear whether that meeting was held before Kim departed for China. IF Carter and Kim did not meet, then it may be because Kim felt a China trip to be much more urgent.

Why is Kim Jong-il in China? When analysing North Korea, it is always easy to speculate than offer concrete analysis based on confirmed facts because the regime is in a black box. Still, we can do some "brain exercises" and think of possible scenarios:

1. The most widely speculated reason: Perhaps to solidfy Beijing's recognition support for his youngest son Kim Jong-un as his successor since Kim's health is said to be fast deteriorating and ahead of a rare and crucial leadership meeting of the ruling Workers' Party. There has been much speculation that Kim may announce his successor at that meeting. Many experts have speculated they need China's seal of approval for his successor, but some experts argue that Pyongyang does not require Beijing's approval on how to run its internal affairs; or...

2. Kim Jong-il realized the flood crisis is more serious than expected and needs China's help; or...

3. He needs medical treatment in China because of he is said to be very ill; or...

4. He wanted to go down memory lane in China and pass down family stories to his son, heir-apparent Kim Jong-un, before passing away because of his ailing health. Kim visited the middle school his father and nation founder Kim Il-sung attended, which was something he reportedly wanted to do for years.

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Kim Jong-il, China, surprise trip, successor, Kim Jong-un, Carter (all tags)