Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency allegedly reported Wednesday that Tehran has acquired “four S-300 surface-to-air missile systems”.  Iran apparently acquired two “S-300 from Belarus and two others from another unspecified source”, with Fars adding, "Iran possesses four S-300 PT missiles.”  The news comes following June reports that suggested the seemingly never-ending saga between Russia and Iran over the sale of the S-300 PMU1 air defense system had finally come to a close - as a result of a recent tightening of UN sanctions.

As explained before, if Iran really did acquire the much touted S-300 PMU-1, it would make an air attack of its controversial nuclear program a lot harder.  However, from looking at the Fars report in more detail and the context in which it was released, it seems that there are a number of issues which cast doubt on the credibility of the notion Iran has acquired a robust S-300 air defense system from Belarus.

In terms of the detail of the report, there is firstly no elaboration on what is meant with regards to the "four S-300 surface-to-air missile systems".  Indeed, does the wording refer to launchers or batteries?   One battery of S-300 PMU1’s, the system that Iran was trying to buy from Russia, consists of up to 12 semi-trailer erector-launchers (TEL) which mount four tubular missile container-launchers and a launcher complex of several other components, detailed photographically here.  Should this report merely infer that Iran has acquired four launchers, then there is little for any would-be aerial attacker to worry about.  Indeed, even with a launcher complex, four TELs would only ever be able to provide a highly limited air defense....

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Iran, S-300, missiles, Security Matters, Iran Watch (all tags)

News has surfaced that Iran has invited Kim Jong-Il to Tehran in order to ‘to further economic ties’.  The invitation comes amid a flurry of recent diplomatic contact between the two states.  Two weeks ago, an Iranian delegation led by Vice-Minister Mohammad Ali Fathollahi met with Kim Yong Nam, de facto head of the North Korean state, to hold talks regarding ‘bilateral political, economic and cultural relations’ and ‘international and regional issues’.  Last week Iran’s ‘Press TV’ subsequently reported that Kim Yong Nam will visit Iran this summer to launch a ‘scientific and cultural exchange program’ between the two countries.  

Even if suggestions that Kim Jong-Il has an aversion to flight are true (thus rendering the idea of him visiting Tehran unfeasible), that the invitation was sent is in and of itself significant.  Indeed, it marks the greatest diplomatic contact between the two countries since their recognition of one another diplomatically in 1979.  Given their shared history of missile collaboration, however, these closer ties raise some disconcerting questions…

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Iran Watch, north korea, wmd, Nukes on a Blog, missiles (all tags)

Oil drums welded together or S-300 cannisters?

Iran last week paraded a range of new military equipment on Army Day, including a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system that has been likened to the Russian S-300 PMU-1.   If the system actually represented the PMU-1, it would imply that manufacturers Almaz had finally made good on their December 2005 contractual (and controversial) obligation to deliver.  Upon closer look at the Army Day photos, however, some key differences suggest that this was unlikely the case.  Interestingly though, these same differences may also signify the reality of an indigenously produced Iranian variant - something Tehran has repeatedly alleged is in development...

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Iran Watch, s-300, surface to air missiles, missiles (all tags)

Scud-B & Launcher

Reports last week that Syria had transferred an unspecified number of SCUD missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon, whilst vehemently denied by Damascus, are now being ignored, ambiguously, by senior Hezbollah sources.  If indeed the allegations are true, then the transfer would represent the first acquisition of SCUD type missiles by a non-state actor, a violation of UN Resolution 1701 - which called for the disarming of all armed groups in Lebanon.  The missiles would also now be the furthest-range and most precise weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal, reported in 2009 to contain as many as 80,000 short-range rockets.  

Upon closer inspection, however, it seems that any SCUD missiles would have little utility for Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon.  Thus, if the story is true, reactions which suggest the possible transfer could or should ignite a war seem highly misplaced...

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Security Matters, SCUDS, Syria, Hezbollah, Israel, Missiles, Terror (all tags)

The S-300 SAM

Despite signing a contract with Iran for five batteries of the S-300PMU1 missile defense system back in December 2005, Russia continues to put off delivery of the system to Tehran.  The latest news from Moscow alleges that the current delay is due to ‘technical’ problems – a rather bizarre excuse given that the S-300 has been functioning quite well since 1979.  Perhaps this is why Almaz-Antey (the company that builds the S-300) told Interfax news that “there are no technical problems with the S-300 systems. This is a political issue.”  

With Russia contractually obligated to deliver the system (it already received payment from Tehran), it’s interesting to speculate about the reasons for the delay…

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Iran, Missiles, Russia, Israel, S-300 (all tags)