Deterrence through a telescopic lens

An interesting photo came across today. Click the image for a larger version.

"False artillery emplacements, built with stones and branches, are seen along the waterfront of the Yalu River on the North Korean side, opposite the town of Hekou, China on Tuesday, March 24, 2009. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)"

For the full photo series, click here.

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North Korea, artillery (all tags)

It doesn’t take much prodding for me to post Team America or topless fishing pics. As fun as that is, foreign leaders’ quirks are not the reason states seek nuclear weapons.

For example, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair shed some light on North Korea’s nuclear motivations during his annual threat assessment testimony last month:

The [Korea People’s Army] capabilities are limited by an aging weapons inventory, low production of military combat systems, deteriorating physical condition of soldiers, reduced training, and increasing diversion of the military to infrastructure support. Inflexible leadership, corruption, low morale, obsolescent weapons, a weak logistical system, and problems with command and control also constrain the KPA capabilities and readiness.

Because the conventional military capabilities gap between North and South Korea has become so overwhelmingly great and prospects for reversal of this gap so remote, Pyongyang relies on its nuclear program to deter external attacks on the state and to its regime. Although there are other reasons for the North to pursue its nuclear program, redressing conventional weaknesses is a major factor and one that Kim and his likely successors will not easily dismiss.

I was told by a friend with a background in Asia intelligence that this language about DPRK conventional capabilities was more detailed than what has typically been revealed in open source forums. If that is true, maybe a small U.S. policy shift is on display in this switching DPRK from an axis of evil designee (i.e. Bush) to more of a legitimate security seeker? After all, the United States ought to deal differently with a North Korea possessing justifiable security concerns versus a North Korea that is irreconcilably provocative and dangerous, right?

This is pure uninformed speculation on my part, so DPRKers should feel free to chin check me.

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Nukes of a Blog, North Korea (all tags)

‘Luxury’ goods en route to the DPRK in the vestibule of a Korean train carriage - click to enlarge

It was reported last week that China is looking into allegations that it may have been involved in aiding a North Korean arms shipment bound for the Republic of Congo.  The shipment, which contained North Korean parts for Congo’s fleet of vintage T-54/T-55 tanks, was intercepted by South Africa in November 2009 and reported to the U.N Security Council this week.  

South Africa was authorized to inspect and seize the cargo, first discovered by the French vessel owners who were shipping it, under the auspices of U.N Security Council Resolution 1874, which prohibits the DPRK from importing and exporting all military hardware, including parts.  The fact that the cargo was loaded onto the French ship at the port city of Dalian in China is notable.  Indeed, it seems that the North Korean cargo was brought into Dalian right under the nose of Chinese customs officials, who one might assume to be more vigilant of exports from the DPRK.  It turns out that assumption is not entirely accurate…

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North Korea, China, Sanctions, Nuclear, Arms Sales, Trade (all tags)

Artists rendering of the KN-02

The DPRK on Sunday announced five new ‘no sail zones’ on both its east and west coast, raising concerns in the South that Pyonyang may be gearing up for more short-range ballistic missile tests.  

North Korea’s last round of short-range missile launches in October were passed off by many observers as evidence of Pyonyang’s ‘two-track’ strategy of asserting strength whilst trying to bring the Obama administration back to the negotiating table on the nuclear issue.  So was last week’s artillery barrage near the ROK border.  References to bargaining chips, double standards and even ‘the juvenile behavior of a teenager’ continue to pepper analysis of most North Korean belligerency.   As North-South relations warm with talk of a possible summit between Kim Jong-Il and President Lee Myung-bak, any tests in the next few days will no doubt also be explained in similar terms.  However, should we accept this conventional wisdom…

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea (all tags)

Last month, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) sought to authenticate North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapon state by citing a recent assessment by Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen. KCNA reported that “the Federation of American Scientists of the United States has confirmed (North) Korea as a nuclear weapon state.” However, KCNA’s report was an oversimplification of the Norris-Kristensen assessment. Yesterday, the South Korean Yonhap News Agency disseminated Kristensen’s rebuttal to the KCNA report, though over a week after it had been made. Better late than never…

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea (all tags)

An example of what will not be on North Korean television next summer

By Travis Sharp and Kirk Bansak

North Korea was randomly assigned today to what looks to be the “group of death” in next year’s World Cup in South Africa. In addition to North Korea, the group includes Brazil (ranked 2nd in the world), Portugal (5th), and the Ivory Coast (16th). Last month, the Telegraph reported that Kim Jong-Il has banned World Cup 2010 coverage on North Korean television except for victory highlights.

In other words, no World Cup on TV in the DPRK next year.

In contrast, the United States drew the much more manageable England (9th), Algeria (28th), and Slovenia (33rd). It may be worth checking FIFA’s bylaws to see if the United States can swap its preferable group placement in exchange for North Korean denuclearization. After all, as one wise guy tried to argue while we watched the draw at lunch, regular Americans don’t care about soccer anyway, right?

The head of one regular American is definitely going to explode soon.

NOH believes it is clear that President Obama is responsible for this fortuitous World Cup development. Clearly his diplomacy is making things easier internationally for the United States and more difficult for North Korea. Any assertion to the contrary is intellectually dishonest and fundamentally un-American.

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea (all tags)

More data points calling into question the assertion that Japan might seek nuclear weapons if the United States tweaks its force posture…

On November 13, the United States and Japan released a joint statement on the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. According to the statement:  

The Government of the United States continues to seek early conclusion of a START follow-on treaty through negotiations with the Russian Federation. The Government of Japan welcomes the progress made in the negotiations and expresses its expectation for early agreement. The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan call upon states that hold nuclear weapons to respect the principles of transparency, verifiability and irreversibility in the process of nuclear disarmament. The Government of the United States is committed to reducing the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy, and the Government of the United States and the Government of Japan urge other states that hold nuclear weapons to do the same.

On November 23, Masakatsu Ota of Kyodo News revealed that before the Democratic Party of Japan won a landslide election victory in August 2009, the Liberal Democratic Party-led Japanese government lobbied the Strategic Posture Commission to maintain the capability to deploy the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile/Nuclear (TLAM/N). It’s unlikely that the new government will be so gung-ho about the TLAM/N, especially since, as Jeffrey notes, it could accidentally crash into Japan or South Korea if it were ever fired at North Korea. And don’t forget that, much to former Secretary Schlesinger’s chagrin, the U.S. Navy appears to care less about the TLAM-N.

A Kyodo News survey of the Democratic Party of Japan’s Lower House members conducted in October found that 87.2 percent of the respondents would support a U.S. “no first use” declaratory policy. Only 4.7 percent of the respondents thought that the Japanese constitution’s three nonnuclear principles should be reviewed. The survey drew responses from 211 of the Democratic Party of Japan’s 308 Lower House Members.

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Nukes on a Blog, Posture Review, North Korea, Table Scraps, New START, Japan (all tags)

By Kirk Bansak and Andrew Riedy

Quibbling with the conventions of op-ed form and style aside, PONI’s critique of our article on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty makes a few points that merit a response.

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Nukes on a Blog, Iran Watch, CTBT, North Korea, China (all tags)

Concatenation

While the United States has chastised both Iran and North Korea for their human rights abuses, it has typically kept the issue separate from denuclearization talks. Yet some experts recommend integrating human rights into broader discussions, as opposed to pursuing single-variable negotiations, in order to create valuable synergies within the diplomatic process.

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Nukes on a Blog, Iran Watch, North Korea (all tags)

Provocateurs!

The love-hate triangle between the United States, North Korea, and South Korea continues.

Pyongyang has called its recent naval clash with the South the result of Seoul’s meddling in U.S.-North Korean reconciliation. Referring to the incident as “deliberate, planned provocation” by South Korea, one of Pyongyang’s state-run newspapers reported today, “It goes to show how recklessly crazy the South Korean government is in trying to put a brake on improving relations between North Korea and the U.S.”

This is not the first time Pyongyang has accused Seoul of playing saboteur…

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea (all tags)