AQ Khan

The Washington Post revealed yesterday accusations and alleged evidence of North Korean bribes for nuclear “know-how” in an article that if true, will prove extremely damning for Pyongyang, Islamabad, and Washington.  Any iota of faith left in North Korea’s desire to ever denuclearize would disappear among any of the remaining believers, for it would confirm that Pyongyang was pursuing a uranium path to nuclear weapons simultaneous to the steps it was taking towards denuclearization in the late 1990s.  The reputation of Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff, General Jehangir Karamat (also ex-U.S. Ambassador and Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Commissioner) would be in tatters, raising serious questions in Washington about nuclear security in a country increasingly plagued by terrorism.

In essence, The Post’s story suggests that Abdul Qadeer Khan personally handed over North Korean money to a Pakistani general in 1998 in exchange for nuclear know-how.  To corroborate, Khan provided The Posts’ source (Simon Henderson) with a letter he allegedly received from North Korean Workers’ Party Secretary, Jon Bong-ho, which detailed payments of cash and jewelry intended for two Pakistani generals.  Henderson received the backstory and letter “in the years after  [Khan’s] 2004 arrest by Pakistani authorities”, deciding to pass them onto The Post in 2011 “because he lacked the resources to authenticate it himself”.  But despite The Posts best efforts, the articles author R. Jeffrey Smith admits he was unable to confirm the allegations, instead providing argument and counter-argument from U.S. and Pakistan officials respectively.  Given the serious allegations contained in the article and the potential ramifications if proved true, it is important to look closer at both source and evidence before making any hasty conclusions.

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north korea, dprk, kcna, pyongyang (all tags)

Former President Jimmy Carter has departed Pyongyang to return home with missionary Aijalon Mahli Gomes who was sentenced to eight years of hard labor and fined $700,000 for illegal entry into North Korea, according to a statement released by the Carter Center. "At the request of President Carter, and for humanitarian purposes, Mr. Gomes was granted amnesty by the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-Il," the statement said. Carter's "private and humanitarian" mission was accomplished, but history has shown that trips by former U.S. presidents to free hostages are hardly ever entirely private and humanitarian.

Kim Jong-il is currently in China (read previous post) and has reportedly continued his tour without heading back home while Carter had reportedly extended his stay in Pyongyang apparently waiting to meet Kim. Some sources say Carter did not sit down with Kim Jong-il as widely expected. One way to interpret this phenonemon is that Kim intentionally did not meet, and never wanted to meet, Carter. If true, then why? Here are some possible scenarios (of course partly based on speculation):

1. Kim Jong-il may have wanted to send a clear message to  Washington: It will also play hardball. In other words, in the face of a tough U.S. that continues to harden its policy of containment toward Pyongyang with additonal sanctions, the regime wanted to snub the U.S. by ignoring a country's most senior-level visitor, a former president; or...

2. Kim Jong-il may have concluded that he would not be able to get the most out of playing the "Carter card" consdering Carter's role and status in relation to the Obama administration. He may have concluded that Carter is not, in reality, Obama's envoy; or...

3. He sees the current geopolitical dynamic as "U.S.-South Korea" vs. "China-North Korea."

If history serves as a lesson in explaining current events and forecasting the future, it may be safe to predict that the current state of tension between the U.S. and North Korea will continue for the time being. Carter's first trip to North Korea led to dialgoue between Washington and Pyongyang after meeting the late founder Kim Il-sung. It could be argued that dialogue is unforeseeable in the near future since Kim Jong-il did not meet Carter this time.

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Jimmy Carter, Kim Jong-il, Gomes, Pyongyang, China (all tags)