Guest Post by Cole Harvey

On February 5, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev approved the text of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (available in the original Russian here).  The new doctrine had been the subject of some concern before its publication (including from yours truly), following an interview with the secretary of the Russian Security Council in which he suggested that the document would authorize the use of nuclear weapons in “local” conflicts.  Thankfully the new military doctrine outlines a far more circumscribed role for nuclear weapons than the secretary had indicated...

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Nukes on a Blog, Russia (all tags)

From the gang called Russians with attitudes, crazy motherf***** named Putin said yesterday that Russia should proceed with building a new nuclear-capable bomber.

Putin’s statement comes as President Obama is ramping up funding for development of the next generation U.S. nuclear submarine and bomber.

Now boys, are we merely seeking to keep capabilities in tip top shape, or are we having a resolve contest in the middle of negotiating a nuclear reductions treaty? Yes yes, we’re all seriously committed to blowing each other up in the most stylish manner possible. Let’s get on with the reductions now, shall we?

Alternatively: pandering to Russian military-industrial complex while recapturing Soviet glory days = Putin for Prez 2012.

UPDATE 3/3: In retrospect, the picture caption probably should have been “Long pole in the nuclear tent.” I regret the oversight.

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Nukes on a Blog, Russia, New START, Posture Review, Navy, Air Force (all tags)

Despite signing a contract with Iran for five batteries of the S-300PMU1 missile defense system back in December 2005, Russia continues to put off delivery of the system to Tehran.  The latest news from Moscow alleges that the current delay is due to ‘technical’ problems – a rather bizarre excuse given that the S-300 has been functioning quite well since 1979.  Perhaps this is why Almaz-Antey (the company that builds the S-300) told Interfax news that “there are no technical problems with the S-300 systems. This is a political issue.”  

With Russia contractually obligated to deliver the system (it already received payment from Tehran), it’s interesting to speculate about the reasons for the delay…

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Iran, Missiles, Russia, Israel, S-300 (all tags)

The Obama administration has gone to great lengths to ensure that New START will not limit U.S. missile defense systems. The initial guidance issued by President Obama made clear that “the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms” was the objective of the negotiations. Michael McFaul, Special Assistant for Russian and Eurasian Affairs, repeated that "We're not going to reassure or give or trade...anything with the Russians regarding NATO expansion or missile defense." Even when the Russians made noise about missile defense in January, administration officials didn’t back down.

This opposition to negotiated constraints on U.S. missile defense systems was strengthened Monday with the publication of the first-ever Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report. This roadmap document, which comprehensively assessed missile defense policies, strategies, plans, and programs, states clearly that the United States will not be appeasing Russia or China anytime soon. The report says:

The Administration also seeks to engage Russia and China on missile defense. With Russia, it is pursuing a broad agenda focused on shared early warning of missile launches, possible technical cooperation, and even operational cooperation. With China, the Administration seeks further dialogue on strategic issues of interest to both nations, including missile defense. As it pursues these discussions, the Administration will continue to reject any negotiated restraints on U.S. ballistic missile defenses.

[snip]

Both Russia and China have repeatedly expressed concerns that U.S. missile defenses adversely affect their own strategic capabilities and interests. The United States will continue to engage them on this issue to help them better understand the stabilizing benefits of missile defense—particularly China, which claims to have successfully demonstrated its own ground-based midcourse interception on January 11, 2010. As the United States has stated in the past, the homeland missile defense capabilities are focused on regional actors such as Iran and North Korea. While the GMD system would be employed to defend the United States against limited missile launches from any source, it does not have the capacity to cope with large scale Russian or Chinese missile attacks, and is not intended to affect the strategic balance with those countries.

I know, I know: we could spend hours criticizing the theoretical coherence of “the stabilizing benefits” of missile defense or the dripping condescension of the United States trying “to help [Russia and China] better understand” why missile defense is about Freedom, Inc. I’ve taken those ideas to task before (here and here, for starters). So have people who actually know what the hell they’re talking about.

Instead, I just want NOH readers to remember the passages above during the months ahead when opponents of President Obama’s arms control agenda charge that the administration wants to give away missile defense in order to appease Russia and/or China. I honestly don’t think the Obama administration’s commitment to doing the exact opposite could be much stronger—for better or worse.

UPDATE 4PM: At Monday's QDR briefing, USD-P Michele Flournoy fielded a question on U.S. cooperation with Russia/China on missile defense. She said:

With regard to Russia, we, after the European phased adaptive approach decision was made, we did brief them on the change of plans and what the program would look like. We invited them to begin a dialogue with us about shared early warning. Russia has a number of radar systems, other ISR systems that would be very helpful in a more cooperative approach to the defense of that region. And so we've invited them to have that discussion. We're hopeful that they'll take us up on that invitation.

With regard to China, it's been more an invitation to have more strategic dialogue. That covers not only missile defenses but nuclear forces, sort of how we see the security environment and our response to it. It's really trying to inject greater transparency into our discussions about what each country is doing with regard to the development of its military capabilities.

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Nukes on a Blog, Missile Defense, Russia, China (all tags)

I’m still sifting through some of the nuclear headlines from the holiday break and wanted to address the hyperventilating in the blogosphere and the media about Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin’s end of the year comments on missile defense.  In a visit to Vladivostok on December 29, Putin stated:

If we don’t develop a missile defense system, a danger arises for us that with an umbrella protecting our partners from offensive weapons, they will feel completely safe….The balance will be disrupted, and then they will do whatever they want, and aggressiveness will immediately arise both in real politics and economics.

The view from the U.S. press seems to be that this means missile defense is the main issue holding up completion of the New START agreement.

Maybe we’re in too much of a “don’t freak out mood” over here at the Center, but I don’t put much stock in Putin’s remarks.  The reality is that despite Russia’s initial positive reaction to the Obama administration’s new approach to missile defense in Europe, it remains deeply concerned about U.S. missile defense plans.  Putin didn’t say anything new…

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Security Matters, Missile Defense, New START, Putin, Russia (all tags)

The Arms Control Association has released the nominees for its third annual Arms Controller of the Year contest. Previous winners include Norway's foreign minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Reps. Peter Visclosky (D-Ind.) and David Hobson (R-Ohio).

President Obama is the obvious frontrunner, but he’s already been on an award tour or two this year, hasn’t he?

German foreign ministers Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Guido Westerwelle and Japanese foreign minister Katsuya Okada might be good choices because of their willingness to remind everyone that the “beneficiaries” of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence not only have a say in the policy, but also possess serious doubts about whether Cold War-style nuclear deployments are still the best way to deal with 21st century security challenges.

Looking ahead, NOH hopes that the 2010 award goes to Vice President Biden after he helps find a non-retrograde solution for modernization, shepherds a treaty or two through the Senate, and begins operationalizing –through both the budget and the global nuclear security summit – the administration’s plan to secure all vulnerable fissile material within four years.

12 months and counting, Veep. Do it to it.

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Nukes of a Blog, New START, START, Russia, CTBT, Obama Administration, Japan (all tags)

It still looks like signature of New START will have to wait until 2010. The Russians said that the exchange of missile test telemetry continues to be a problem.

In another installment of her great reporting on President Obama’s arms control agenda, Plutonium Page of Daily Kos yesterday wrote about current and future difficulties facing New START. Page talked to Kingston about the challenges presented by mobile missiles, “attribution vs. actual” counting rules, and efforts to trade ratification of New START for new nuclear weapons.

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Nukes of a Blog, New START, START, Russia (all tags)

AP:

The White House said Tuesday it didn't expect President Barack Obama to sign a nuclear weapons treaty with Russia when he travels to Copenhagen this week.

Spokesman Robert Gibbs said the U.S. and Russia continued to make progress on negotiations for a successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as START, and that he hoped an agreement would be reached soon. But the spokesman said there was no signing ceremony planned in Copenhagen, nor did he expect there to be any additional stops in nearby countries.

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Nukes on a Blog, New START, START, Russia (all tags)

This is getting ridiculous.

The new Russian SLBM, known as the Bulava, failed its third consecutive flight test yesterday. Not only did the Bulava fail, it appears to have failed so spectacularly that it set off a major UFO frenzy in Norway.

Check this out:

Yep, that may very well be the Bulava going round and round. It was something when the Bulava launched sideways, but those hypnotic spirals are a cut above.

Realistically, things will get straightened out with the Bulava eventually. Russia has built scads of nuclear missiles over the years, and they’re going to figure out what’s wrong and fix it.

In the meantime, however, NOH will continue to wonder whether mass hypnotization via Bulava spirals is the type of nuclear modernization that should worry the United States.

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Nukes on a Blog, Russia, Bulava (all tags)

With December 18 being floated as a potential signing date for the “New START” agreement between the United States and Russia, all the apes have left to do is agree upon a treadmill downshifting scheme that will maximize their appeal to all the lovely lady apes working the free weights.

This part is tricky…

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Nukes on a Blog, New START, START, Russia (all tags)