Step II is expected to begin this week in a three-step approach in resuming the Six Party Talks that broke down in December 2008.

Upon U.S. invitation, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-Gwan is expected to land in New York later this week for preliminary talks with a US inter-agency team. Kim, Pyongyang’s former chief nuclear negotiator to the Six Party Talks, orchestrates the North’s nuclear negotiations.

The meeting would come on the heels of Step I held last week between the two Koreas on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Bali, and would be the first time in over a year (1 year and 7 months to be exact) since Washington and Pyongyang met directly, face-to-face.  

Seoul and Washington officials are maintaining a cautious stance, and are rightly still suspicious of whether Pyongyang truly intends to surrender its nuclear arsenal.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a statement, “We will not give them anything new for actions they have already agreed to take. And we have no appetite for pursuing protracted negotiations that will only lead us right back to where we have already been." (Click 'Read More.')

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North Korea-U.S. direct talks, South Korea, Six Party Talks (all tags)

Chief nuclear negotiators from the two Koreas held a two-hour discussion in Bali for the first time in over 2.5 years since the Six Party Talks broke down in 2008. Meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Seoul’s Wi Sung-lac and Pyongang’s Ri Yong-ho agreed to work towards resuming the Six Party Talks “as soon as possible.”

They reportedly discussed a range of issues aimed at building trust and clearing up misunderstandings as part of the three-step approach (inter-Korean talks --> U.S.-North Korea talks --> Six Party Talks) in resuming multilateral nuclear negotiations.

South Korean news reports say the two Koreas did not set a date for their next meeting, and it’s unclear whether it will take place in parallel or simultaneously with U.S.-North Korea talks.

Foreign Ministers from the two Koreas are also expected to meet during the ARF on Saturday.

While Seoul has shown flexibility in delinking the Cheonan and Yeongpyeong Island attacks from the denuclearization process, it had remained firm that Pyongyang needs to show a sincere gesture towards denuclearization before resuming the Six Party Talks. An example has been for Pyongyang to allow IAEA inspectors back into the North, but it remains to be seen how such precondition will be handled.

The Bali meeting is a step in the right direction. It was significant in that it was the first time in 20 years the two Koreas held denuclearization discussions, which is a topic the North has always refused, claiming it is an issue between Pyongyang and Washington.

Just as a senior Seoul official was quoted as saying, dialogue enabled the two Koreas to understand each other’s position better and clear up any misunderstandings. Such a trust-building meeting is undeniably important, but it stopped short of any agreements on substance.

This means, the tough part has yet to come that will decide the fate of the Six Party Talks.

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South Korea, North Korea, denuclearization talks, Bali, Wi Sung-lac, Ri Yong-ho, Six Party Talks (all tags)

Two significant news this week:

1. Ambassador Sung Kim is the first ethnic Korean to become U.S. Ambassador to Seoul. Click here for more.

2. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated that Washington is willing to engage North Korea if Pyongyang improves relations with Seoul. Clinton and visiting South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan met to discuss various Korean Peninsular issues. Click here for their remarks. Click here for an AP article on Washington's reiterated position.

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Sung Kim, South Korea, North Korea (all tags)

... Now we know why... On May 26, 2011, North Korean state-run media KCNA reports Happines Index among 203 countries and grades out of 100 points:

1. China (100)

2. North Korea (98)

3. Cuba (93)

4. Iran (88)

5. Venezuela (85)

152. South Korea (18)

203. USA

* Released by a Chinese source, picked up by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo

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North Korea, Happiness Index, USA, South Korea, Iran, Cuba, China (all tags)

Nothing much has happened on Day 1 of inter-Korean working-level military talks, but I thought I might update everyone on what's happened so far:

- The talks are being held on the South Korean side of the border truce village of Panmunjeom among colonel-level officials.

• The plan is to hold preparatory talks before higher-level military talks in the future.
  
• The Feb. 8th talks reportedly lasted over nine hours and ended without an agreement on the agenda and rank of the officials for the envisioned higher-level military meeting.
  
• South Korea's opening position: The Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong Island shelling must be discussed at the higher-level military talks. The current preparatory meeting would gauge Pyongyang's sincerity in taking responsibility for its actions while preventing further provocations.
  
• North Korea's opening position: Pyongyang claims that discussing the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island incidents exclusively is like rejecting higher-level military talks. It also wants to deal with these two issues simultaneously with establishing mutual trust.
  
• The two Koreas will meet again on February 9th at 10:00 a.m. (KST) for day 2 of talks.

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South Korea, North Korea, military talks, Nukes on a Blog (all tags)

(full texts)

2010.12.6 TRILATERAL STATEMENT ROK, U.S., JAPAN: WASHINGTON, DC

Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan Seiji Maehara, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Republic of Korea Kim Sung-hwan, and the Secretary of State of the United States of America Hillary Rodham Clinton, met in Washington, D.C., on December 6, 2010 for a ministerial trilateral. This meeting builds on longstanding efforts to intensify policy coordination and strategic dialogue among the three countries and reflects the need for greater trilateral cooperation in addressing enduring and emerging challenges. The Ministers noted that as three of the world’s major economies with shared values, the three nations have a common cause and responsibilities to maintain stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. (Click "read more")

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South Korea, U.S., Japan, Joint Statement, Yeonpyeong, North Korea, Six-Party Talks (all tags)

China’s proposal for “emergency consultations” among envoys to the Six-Party Talks in early December is reminiscent of an all-too familiar recent past. Beijing claims the meeting is to prevent further escalation between the two Koreas. But don’t get your hopes up just yet.

Wu Dawei, chief Chinese nuclear negotiator on CCTV:

"The Chinese side, after careful studies, proposes having emergency consultations among the nuclear envoys in early December in Beijing to exchange views on major issues of concern to the parties at present…”

Such words should be cautiously analyzed because it may be a veiled attempt to outwardly resume the Six-Party Talks but, in fact, evade any responsibility to influence North Korea regarding Pyongyang’s latest two attacks on the South. Beijing appears to be trying to elicit pre-Six Party Talks before the real thing. Click "Read More."

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China, North Korea, Emergency 6-Party Talks, Yeonpyeong Island attack, South Korea (all tags)

So here we are again with a flood of news on North Korea.

I won’t go into telling the story of the artillery exchanges between North and South Korea since it’s plastered in the news. Instead, I’ll try to put what’s recently happened into context.

First of all, we’ve been here before in the West Sea, some also bloody. But this time, it’s much more serious and provocative. It is a direct attack on South Korean territory resulting in the death and injury of civilians. There seems to be no doubt or differing views that this was a direct “armed attack,” particularly since North Korea took responsibility for it, unlike the March 26 Cheonan incident.

At first, it was unclear whether the attack was technically intentional or if, in the exchanges of fire, some shells happened to land in South Korean territory. The exchange coincided with a routine South Korean maritime drill, and more information was required to determine any linkage. But U.S.-South Korean Defense chiefs have reportedly agreed over a telephone conversation that the attack was “intentional and carefully calculated.” Click "Read more."

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North Korea, South Korea, artillery exchange, attack (all tags)

Chinese envoy Wu Dawei met with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul on August 26th to discuss the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament.  But the meeting merely reaffirmed that the gap in their perception is still wide among the parties.

Wu reportedly proposed resuming nuclear negotiations in three phases, according to South Korean media:

1. Hold U.S.-North Korea direct talks

2.Hold unofficial, preliminary six-party talks privately behind closed doors

3. Hold official six-party talks

Wu reportedly said Beijing and Pyongyang have agreed on this method, and China is now trying to convince Seoul and later Tokyo, Washington and Russia to accept the plan.  The Chinese envoy’s trip coincided with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s North Korea visit and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s China tour.

Reaction to the Proposal?

Seoul and Washington have maintained that Pyongyang must take responsibility over sinking the Cheonan before resuming six-way negotiations.  Many observers believe that Pyongyang is trying to avoid responsibility with China’s help by dangling the possibility of resuming nuclear talks.

Beijing’s handling of the Cheonan incident has upset the other members of the six-party talks (minus Russia). So it may not be easy for China, the chair of the six-party talks, to coax Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. It remains to be seen what card Beijing plays to win the others over.

IF Pyongyang does have the will to denuclearize and proves this with concrete actions, then it will be difficult for Seoul and Washington to endlessly demand an apology before resuming the six-party talks.

The Gap: Still Wide

The problem, which has been so since the first nuclear crisis, is the wide gap in perception between the two sides. On one side, Pyongyang continues to deny its involvement in Cheonan, insist on the lifting of sanctions and insist on signing a peace treaty before denuclearization. On the other side, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo demand denuclearization steps first.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are unified in their policy and approach toward North Korea, which has been a rare phenomenon in the past. On the other side is China and North Korea. It is unclear what hidden cards will be played to break the current impasse.

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China, Wu Da-wei, South Korea, North Korea, Kim Jong-il, Cheonan, six-party talks, peace treaty (all tags)

The international team investigating the sinking of the Cheonan released its report last week, alleging North Korean responsibility for the attack.  With the outcome of the investigation widely accepted by the international community, condemnation of Pyongyang has been nearly universal.  As I explained in last week’s analysis, both South Korea and its allies have few avenues to reprimand the DPRK.  Nonetheless, talk of U.N sanctions and the resumption of South Korea’s psychological warfare campaign has infuriated Pyongyang, which has  threatened to retaliate with ‘a sacred war involving the whole nation’, using an ‘indiscriminate punishment of our style’.  While this isn’t the first time North Korea has threatened to respond with war or even use nuclear weapons, its release in the context of the Cheonan incident must not be dismissed lightly – especially given signs that Kim Jong Il has instructed the DPRK military to get ready for combat.

Given the current uncertainties surrounding succession, Kim Jong-Il will not want to look weak to the DPRK military – the group holding the most significant power broker in North Korea.  By not following through on at least some of the type of actions detailed in North Korea’s warnings, Kim could risk being seen as ineffectual – potentially causing problems for the planned succession to his son Kim Jong-Eun.  Kim’s leadership over the coming days and weeks will thus be informed by this context.  Similarly, Lee Myung Bak has stressed that South Korea ‘will not tolerate any provocative act by the North and will maintain the principle of proactive deterrence’.  He too will be under pressure to show strong leadership, especially in advance of the June 2, 2010 local elections in South Korea.  In this context, it seems there are several potential flashpoints that could lead to escalation.

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North Korea, 6 Party Talks, Cheonan, South Korea, nuclear (all tags)