Tough Choices Facing the IAEA and the Non-Aligned Movement
Matthew | Jul 05, 2011 |
2 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) stand at a crossroads over the nuclear ambitions of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
On June 9, the Board of Governors at the IAEA declared Syria in noncompliance with IAEA safeguards.
Notably, the resolution was predicated not on information from unbiased IAEA inspections, but on intelligence provided by the United States and verified by data in the public domain. Eleven NAM countries chose to abstain from the vote to report Syria, in part because they were hesitant to rely on intelligence provided by the U.S. and its allies. The resolution stands no chance in New York as Russia and China, both of which possess veto power over possible sanctions as permanent members of the UN Security Council, will certainly oppose it.
India in particular faces a dilemma that typifies the choices facing the NAM. On October 1st, 2008 the U.S. Senate approved HR 7081: the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act. Championed by the Bush administration, the “123 agreement” elevated India to a de-facto internationally recognized nuclear weapons state despite New Delhi’s refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Syria, the IAEA’s New Best Friend
Patricia Morris | May 31, 2011 | 0 
AFP/Getty Image
Just two days after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s reported that Syria had likely built a nuclear reactor on the site bombed by Israel in 2007 (see Laicie’s post), Syria has promised full compliance with any and all future IAEA investigations and inspections.
On a side note, Syrian President Assad today also offered general amnesty to all “political” prisoners, i.e. protesters, in an attempt to quell the protests that military force has been unable to stop for over ten weeks. 1,000 people have been killed by Syrian forces.
It appears that the Syrian government is hard at work to renovate its public image.
The U.S. has put forth a draft resolution to the IAEA governing board referring Syria to the U.N. for non-compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The vote is scheduled for June 6 and could result in punitive action against Damascus, as occurred with Iran. By reporting Syria, the U.S. may be hoping to gain has the added benefit of reigniting the conversation about Iran’s NPT transgressions, thereby strengthening support for tougher sanctions on Iran.
Syria’s sudden interest in making nice after having stonewalled inspectors since 2008 is likely to stall any attempts to penalize the country and could offer Damascus more time to destroy what evidence is left at the reactor site. Another concern is that Syria’s sudden agreeableness could also “dilute efforts to end Syria’s bloody crackdown on its grass-roots pro-democracy movement.”
The IAEA is a slow moving body and inspections might not resume immediately, but soon enough we shall see if President Assad and his Ba’athist party have any interest in real change or if it is just PR.
Reports Provide New Information on Iran and Syria
Laicie Olson | May 25, 2011 | 1 
2007 satellite image of Syrian reactor via Associated Press
Two new reports from the IAEA shed light on the current nuclear status of both Iran and Syria. The confidential reports were issued ahead of the IAEA Board of Governors’ June 6-10 meeting, where Iran and Syria will be at the top of the agenda.
There is both good and bad news, so in the spirit of ending on an optimistic note, let’s start with the bad.
The Bad
1) Syria was probably building a nuclear weapon:
The IAEA reports that a long-gone Syrian site (the one that was bombed by Israel in 2007) was “very likely” to have been a nuclear reactor. The US has made this assertion all along, stating that the site was near-completion partially due to the help of North Korea. The IAEA, however, has never shown its explicit support for the claim. This is no longer the case.
"Based on all the information available to the agency and its technical evaluation of that information, the agency assesses that it was very likely that the building destroyed at Dair Alzour site was a nuclear reactor which should have been declared to the agency," the report said.
Syria, like Iran, denies harboring a secret nuclear weapons program, but has refused to allow inspectors to return to the site after an initial visit revealed traces of uranium and other suspicious materials.
2) Iran is probably building a nuclear weapon:
Building on previous comments by Director General Amano, the IAEA’s second report says that the agency has “received further information related to such possible undisclosed nuclear-related activities, which is currently being assessed.”
Iran Watch, Nukes on a Blog, Syria, AQ Khan, Pakistan (all tags)
Hezbollah and SCUDS - An Unlikely Combination?
Tad | Apr 21, 2010 | 2 
Scud-B & Launcher
Reports last week that Syria had transferred an unspecified number of SCUD missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon, whilst vehemently denied by Damascus, are now being ignored, ambiguously, by senior Hezbollah sources. If indeed the allegations are true, then the transfer would represent the first acquisition of SCUD type missiles by a non-state actor, a violation of UN Resolution 1701 - which called for the disarming of all armed groups in Lebanon. The missiles would also now be the furthest-range and most precise weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal, reported in 2009 to contain as many as 80,000 short-range rockets.
Upon closer inspection, however, it seems that any SCUD missiles would have little utility for Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon. Thus, if the story is true, reactions which suggest the possible transfer could or should ignite a war seem highly misplaced...
Security Matters, SCUDS, Syria, Hezbollah, Israel, Missiles, Terror (all tags)
Syria’s Assad: Obama “A Man of His Words"
Erica | Mar 19, 2009 | 0 
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
President Obama “has shown himself to be a man of his words,” Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad told the Italian center-left newspaper La Repubblica. Syria is open to mediate between the West and Iran, he added.
Earlier this month the Obama administration sent a senior diplomatic envoy to Damascus, hoping to find common ground on “a number of issues,” which probably included Syria’s diplomacy with Israel, its role in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and its relationship with Iran.
The United Sates has long tried to increase Iran’s political isolation in the region by driving a wedge between Damascus and Tehran. Assad, though, is playing his cards carefully.
