Signatures on the 7/12 Letter

Turkey has officially agreed to house a U.S./NATO radar as part of the NATO missile defense system in Europe.   Despite their love affair with missile defense, two Republican Senators may try to obstruct the deal.

The Senators, Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill), have already criticized the plan in a July 12 letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.  The letter outlined four ill thought out conditions.

Condition 1: That the radar is deployed in a location “that will ensure the best defense of the United States against the Iranian long-range ballistic missile threat.”

Senators Kyl and Kirk proposed Georgia or Azerbaijan as alternative sites because in a meeting with a senior Missile Defense Agency representative they were advised that placing the radar in Georgia or Azerbaijan would be advantageous U.S. despite the fact that neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan is a member of NATO.

Moreover, given Georgia’s recent war with Russia, Moscow would see a radar in Georgia as a deliberate provocation and evidence that missile defense is aimed at Russia.  Additionally, while the Senators consider Turkey’s delicate relationship with Iran to be problematic, they express no concern with Georgia’s pro-active pursuit of stronger relations with Iran.  

Finally, by endorsing Azerbaijan, the Senators are simply repeating former Russian Prime Minster, Vladimir Putin’s Azerbaijan proposal, which President Bush rejected.  

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Nukes on a Blog, Turkey, Missile Defense, Kirk, Kyl (all tags)

Let's make a deal.

Building on the very useful analysis of CAP and IISS, here are some of the key differences between the October 2009 and May 2010 fuel swap proposals:

1)    Iran’s uranium supply is larger now: 1,500kg in 2009 vs. 2,300kg in 2010.  As initially laid out, the swap would have removed nearly 80 percent of Iran’s stockpile of LEU.  As it stands now, the proposal would remove only about 50 percent, leaving behind enough to, theoretically, build one bomb.

2)    In the original proposal, Iran’s fuel would be shipped to Russia, enriched to 19.75 percent, and then sent to France to be converted into fuel rods.  In the new proposal, Iran would send its fuel to Turkey for storage.  

3)    The 2010 plan does not outline what will happen to the 1,200 kg of LEU being stored in Turkey once the deal concludes.  Should another country offer up its own stockpile of LEU for enrichment, which is far from guaranteed, then send that enriched fuel to France for conversion, no provisions exist to state where Iran’s original LEU will go at the end of the process.  One would assume back to the country that offered its LEU for conversion.  For this scenario to work, however, the US or Russia must first agree to provide 1,200kg of LEU.

4)    Paragraph 8 of the 2010 proposal states that: “In case the provisions of this Declaration are not respected Turkey, upon the request of Iran, will return swiftly and unconditionally Iran’s LEU to Iran.”  The terms “not respected” are broad and give Iran the right to request the return of its LEU with no specification as to what constitutes a violation.

5)    The 2009 proposal would have granted the IAEA full-access to Iran’s nuclear program – 2010 does not include any statements regarding inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

6)    The 2010 plan requires that the fuel be delivered to Iran within in one year.  France’s fuel fabricator AREVA EURODIF S.A. has indicated, however, that it will require at least two years to produce the required amount of fuel.

7)    The 2010 proposal states the “right of all State Parties [to the NPT], including the Islamic Republic of Iran, to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy (as well as nuclear fuel cycle including enrichment activities) for peaceful purposes without discrimination.”  This statement could be taken to assert Iran’s right to continued enrichment in contradiction of current UN Security Council Resolutions, but its intent is not clear.

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Iran Watch, Brazil, Turkey, TRR Deal, Nuclear Fuel Swap, UN (all tags)

Surprise, surprise!  According to Reuters, Iran “could cancel its agreement with Turkey and Brazil to transfer some of its uranium abroad if the UN Security Council approves a new round of sanctions against it.”

Turkey, Brazil and Iran have urged a halt to talk of further sanctions because of the deal, but the UN Security Council looks poised to move forward regardless.

In Congress, lawmakers seem as ready as ever to ignore the administration’s request to hold off on sanctions legislation until after a UN deal is concluded.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said Tuesday he wants Congress to complete action on the new sanctions legislation before leaving for the Memorial Day recess:

“We hope it will move out of conference this week and be on the floor next week.”

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Iran Watch, Congress, Brazil, Turkey, Sanctions, TRR Deal, Nuclear Fuel Swap, UN (all tags)

The other side of the ‘time’ coin I mentioned yesterday (a far less optimistic side) is Iran’s potential use of the fuel swap to stall sanctions.  In the past, this technique has worked out well.  If one assumes that, once again, Iran is not sincere in its offer and is simply “playing Lucy and the football with the LEU,” negotiations could be over before they even begin.

Enter Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at this morning’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on New START.  

“We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of both Russia and China,” she says, at the most inopportune and, frankly odd, time possible:

We plan to circulate that draft resolution to the entire Security Council today. And let me say, Mr. Chairman, I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.

Hmm – wasn’t expecting that.  I am reminded, though, of the reason I decided to support now-President Barack Obama in the 2008 primaries.

If the council adopts the resolution, it would represent the fourth round of sanctions against Iran.  Unfortunately for sanctions, many have already accepted their inevitable failure…

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Iran Watch, Congress, Brazil, Turkey, Sanctions, TRR Deal, Nuclear Fuel Swap, UN, Clinton (all tags)

Good news – and, one way or another, I do think this is good news – this morning from Tehran.

Following on talks between Turkish, Brazilian and Iranian leaders over the weekend, Iran has agreed to ship much of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey in a deal that, according to AP, “could ease the international standoff over the country's disputed atomic program and deflate a US-led push for tougher sanctions.”

“According to the trilateral deal, Iran will deliver 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to Turkey,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during a press conference on the sidelines of the 14th G-15 Summit in Tehran today.  In return, Iran will receive 120 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium fuel rods for use in a Tehran medical research reactor that produces isotopes for cancer treatment.

While the mainstream media may be getting ahead of themselves a bit, this move is good in many ways.  Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have continued to rise since the announcement of a second, secret, Iranian uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom almost a year ago. Congress is chomping at the bit for new sanctions and even the use of force.

Without a doubt, skeptics will immediately point out Iran’s long history of cooperation up to the very precipice of a deal, with no eventual follow-through.  It may not matter much whether the deal makes it to a close, however.  In the end, it provides for one undeniably positive benefit: time.

In the time it has taken to negotiate this deal, Iran has doubled its stockpile of LEU.  The original purpose, which hoped to delay any Iranian “breakout” capability by at least a year, is effectively dead – so in the end, even “success” will make little difference.  

Politically, however, the deal provides a treasury of stalling techniques to the administration, which will likely want to employ as many as possible.

What remains true is that the situation in Iran needs more time…

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Iran Watch, Congress, Brazil, Turkey, Sanctions, TRR Deal, Nuclear Fuel Swap (all tags)