(Photo: AP)

Washington appears to be anticipating some answers from Pyongyang in talks this week in Geneva, but it might have already gotten a response – from the Dear Leader himself. (Click 'Read More')

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North Korea, U.S., bilateral discussion, nuclear, Geneva (all tags)

Jeffrey Lewis (aka Armscontrolwonk) and Elbridge Colby recently penned a provocative article calling on the Obama administration to modify the B83 gravity bomb in order to hold certain hard and deeply buried targets (HDBTs) in North Korea at risk.  

According to Jeffrey and Bridge, this capability would threaten underground bunkers where Kim Jong-Il might seek refuge or hide some of his nuclear forces that cannot be targeted by existing conventional earth penetrators or nuclear weapons, thereby enhancing deterrence and our ability to reassure South Korea.  In addition, they argue that such a weapon wouldn't violate the Nuclear Posture Review's prohibition on the design and construction of new nuclear weapons with new military capabilities.

The piece has prompted many reactions and in response Jeffrey wrote a follow-up post over at Armscontrolwonk expanding on and clarifying some of their arguments.  I think Jeffrey and Bridge highlight a very serious issue (how to deter North Korea), but I disagree with their proposed solution.  I laid out my objections in a comment on Armscontrolwonk, which I'm crossposting below the jumb.  Be sure to check out the other comments, as well as Jeffrey's responses, over at his blog here.  It's a fascinating and important debate.

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea (all tags)

For all you Korea watchers -- Keep an eye out for the news this week and next. South Korea's newly appointed chief nuclear envoy Lim Sung-nam touched down in Washington today for talks with senior U.S. officials. He's expected to discuss the results of the 2nd round of inter-Korean talks last month in Beijing, exchange views on an envisioned 2nd round of U.S.-North Korea talks, and help prepare for South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's visit to Washington next week during which he will sit down with President Barack Obama. The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement ("KORUS FTA") and the North Korean nuclear issue are expected to top the summit agenda next week.

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North Korea, President Lee Myung-bak, Chief S. Korean nuclear envoy Lim Sung-nam, nuclear, President Barack Obama (all tags)

2011.8.24 North Korean leader Kim Jong-il & Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Ulan-Ude (Xinhua)

The first Pyongyang-Moscow summit in nine years - aimed largely at deepening bilateral economic ties - concluded with no news on the nuclear front. Based on the available information reported on the August 24th summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Pyongyang merely reiterated its basic position without clear signs of taking any steps forward toward denuclearization.

However, it is difficult to make a complete and definitive assessment since the summit results were carried by the media, absent official word from North Korea. Closed door deals, if they exist, remain veiled. The other parties to the Six Party Talks have yet to be debriefed on the summit while chief nuclear negotiators from Seoul and Beijing are slated to meet on Thursday, August 25th.

At this point, only an initial and limited assessment can be made based on preliminary information delivered by the media: (Click “Read More”)

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Nukes on a Blog, North Korea, Russia, Kim Jong-il, Dmitry Medvedev, Six Party Talks (all tags)

2011.7.22 Inter-Korean Denuclearization Talks, Bali

Chief nuclear negotiators from the two Koreas held a two-hour discussion in Bali for the first time in over 2.5 years since the Six Party Talks broke down in 2008. Meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Seoul’s Wi Sung-lac and Pyongang’s Ri Yong-ho agreed to work towards resuming the Six Party Talks “as soon as possible.”

They reportedly discussed a range of issues aimed at building trust and clearing up misunderstandings as part of the three-step approach (inter-Korean talks --> U.S.-North Korea talks --> Six Party Talks) in resuming multilateral nuclear negotiations.

South Korean news reports say the two Koreas did not set a date for their next meeting, and it’s unclear whether it will take place in parallel or simultaneously with U.S.-North Korea talks.

Foreign Ministers from the two Koreas are also expected to meet during the ARF on Saturday.

While Seoul has shown flexibility in delinking the Cheonan and Yeongpyeong Island attacks from the denuclearization process, it had remained firm that Pyongyang needs to show a sincere gesture towards denuclearization before resuming the Six Party Talks. An example has been for Pyongyang to allow IAEA inspectors back into the North, but it remains to be seen how such precondition will be handled.

The Bali meeting is a step in the right direction. It was significant in that it was the first time in 20 years the two Koreas held denuclearization discussions, which is a topic the North has always refused, claiming it is an issue between Pyongyang and Washington.

Just as a senior Seoul official was quoted as saying, dialogue enabled the two Koreas to understand each other’s position better and clear up any misunderstandings. Such a trust-building meeting is undeniably important, but it stopped short of any agreements on substance.

This means, the tough part has yet to come that will decide the fate of the Six Party Talks.

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South Korea, North Korea, denuclearization talks, Bali, Wi Sung-lac, Ri Yong-ho, Six Party Talks (all tags)

AQ Khan

The Washington Post revealed yesterday accusations and alleged evidence of North Korean bribes for nuclear “know-how” in an article that if true, will prove extremely damning for Pyongyang, Islamabad, and Washington.  Any iota of faith left in North Korea’s desire to ever denuclearize would disappear among any of the remaining believers, for it would confirm that Pyongyang was pursuing a uranium path to nuclear weapons simultaneous to the steps it was taking towards denuclearization in the late 1990s.  The reputation of Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff, General Jehangir Karamat (also ex-U.S. Ambassador and Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Commissioner) would be in tatters, raising serious questions in Washington about nuclear security in a country increasingly plagued by terrorism.

In essence, The Post’s story suggests that Abdul Qadeer Khan personally handed over North Korean money to a Pakistani general in 1998 in exchange for nuclear know-how.  To corroborate, Khan provided The Posts’ source (Simon Henderson) with a letter he allegedly received from North Korean Workers’ Party Secretary, Jon Bong-ho, which detailed payments of cash and jewelry intended for two Pakistani generals.  Henderson received the backstory and letter “in the years after  [Khan’s] 2004 arrest by Pakistani authorities”, deciding to pass them onto The Post in 2011 “because he lacked the resources to authenticate it himself”.  But despite The Posts best efforts, the articles author R. Jeffrey Smith admits he was unable to confirm the allegations, instead providing argument and counter-argument from U.S. and Pakistan officials respectively.  Given the serious allegations contained in the article and the potential ramifications if proved true, it is important to look closer at both source and evidence before making any hasty conclusions.

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north korea, dprk, kcna, pyongyang (all tags)

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (Yonhap)

Speculation is running high in the international media that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may sit down with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Japan’s Kyodo News expects the summit to take place on Thursday, June 30th in the Far East city of Vladivostok while other reports say July 1st.  Media reports have also quoted Russian officials as saying preparations are underway for a summit, though Medvedev’s counterpart was not disclosed. President Medvedev is reportedly set to be in Vladivostok to check on preparations for the 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting.

If realized, it would be the first time in nine years the North Korean leader traveled to Russia for a summit with its Cold War ally with whom relations have frayed over the years.

Korea watchers are closely following Kim’s reported travel plans because the expected summit would come on the heels of a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan on June 24th during which the allies reaffirmed that inter-Korea relations must be improved before the resumption of Six Party Talks. Seoul officials say that since the envisioned inter-Korean denuclearization discussion has been delinked from seeking an apology for the sinking of the Cheonan and shelling of Yeongpyeong Island, it is now Pyongyang’s turn to come forward.

It is highly anticipated that economic issues would top the expected Pyongyang-Moscow summit, but would still have implications on the Six Party diplomatic front.

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North Korea, Russia, Kim Jong-il, Dmitry Medvedev (all tags)

Two significant news this week:

1. Ambassador Sung Kim is the first ethnic Korean to become U.S. Ambassador to Seoul. Click here for more.

2. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated that Washington is willing to engage North Korea if Pyongyang improves relations with Seoul. Clinton and visiting South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan met to discuss various Korean Peninsular issues. Click here for their remarks. Click here for an AP article on Washington's reiterated position.

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Sung Kim, South Korea, North Korea (all tags)

KCNA Report: Happiness Index

... Now we know why... On May 26, 2011, North Korean state-run media KCNA reports Happines Index among 203 countries and grades out of 100 points:

1. China (100)

2. North Korea (98)

3. Cuba (93)

4. Iran (88)

5. Venezuela (85)

152. South Korea (18)

203. USA

* Released by a Chinese source, picked up by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo

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North Korea, Happiness Index, USA, South Korea, Iran, Cuba, China (all tags)

In case you've missed it:

A UN sanctions committee report submitted to the Security Council over the weekend suggests North Korea and Iran have been regularly sharing ballistic missile technology via air cargo in violation of UN sanctions against Pyongyang. The New York Times reported that China is delaying the publication of the report.

Here are some excerpts of the unpublished report disclosed by Reuters :

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North Korea, Iran, China, ballistic missile technology, Nukes on a Blog (all tags)