Tunnel Vision
Ulrika Grufman | Nov 03, 2011 |
By Kingston Reif and Ulrika Grufman
Last week, Brett Stephens of the Wall Street Journal, published a one-sided piece about China’s ongoing nuclear force modernization, specifically its construction of 3,000 miles of underground tunnels. According to Stephens, these efforts suggest that:
1. There is good reason to believe that China has far more than the approximately 250 nuclear weapons most experts believe it possesses
2. China may be seeking the capability to “win” a nuclear exchange with the U.S.
3. The U.S. should be wary of further bilateral nuclear reductions with Russia
The Carnegie Endowment’s James Acton has already done an excellent job of exposing the tenuous assumptions that inform Stephens’ analysis and outlining the many ways in which Stephens’ fails to assess the motivations behind China’s nuclear modernization.
As Acton notes, the U.S., which possesses nearly 2,000 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and many more in reserve, would have little to fear even if China did have far more nuclear weapons than the approximately 250 warheads it is believed to possess. China on the other hand, does have understandable grounds for believing that the U.S. intention is to undermine the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent, given that the U.S. is improving the lethality of its nuclear forces and refuses to categorically state that it does not seek to negate China’s arsenal.
