My Blog Posts

• The Pentagon Budget: Fiscal 2013 Edition
  02/13/2012 05:19:46 PM EST
  Click here to see the whole Fiscal Year 2013 Defense Spending Request Briefing Book. For Fiscal Year (FY) 2013, which begins on October 1, 2012, the Obama Administration has requested a base budget of $525.4 billion.  This represents a $5.1 billion, or approximately 1 percent, decrease from the FY12 base budget approved by Congress.   In addition, the Administration has requested $88.5 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO), to continue to fight the wars overseas. This is $26.6 billion decrease from the amount enacted last year, $115.1 billion, and brings the FY13 defense budget request to a total of $613.9 billion. These numbers do not include nuclear weapons related spending in the Department of Energy (DOE) or other defense related funding.  In addition to an initial $613.9 billion for the Pentagon’s base budget and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Administration has requested approximately $17.7 billion for nuclear weapons activities at Department of Energy and $7.2 billion for additional non-Pentagon defense related activities. This brings total Pentagon defense related spending to approximately $639 billion, a nominal decrease of about $30.7 billion below FY12, largely due to savings from the war in Afghanistan and the end of the war in Iraq.
  
• Pentagon Budget: Forced To Diet On Only $614 Billion
  01/26/2012 05:21:36 PM EST
  Those seeking further details on changes in the Pentagon budget received some satisfaction today in a briefing delivered by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey. Secretary Panetta revealed that the budget, expected to be released in full detail on February 13, will contain $525 billion in base spending for fiscal 2013.  This excludes funding for the wars as well as nuclear-related activities at the Department of Energy, and represents a $6 billion decrease from the fiscal 2012 base budget approved by Congress.  Congress’ final number for fiscal 2012 was rolled back by $22 billion from the administration's original proposal in order to comply with the Budget Control Act.   In addition, the Pentagon will request $88.4 billion in funding for the wars overseas, approximately $27 billion less than fiscal 2012 due to the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. The Pentagon’s stated “hope and plan,” according to Secretary Panetta, is to grow the base budget (PDF) to $567 billion by fiscal 2017.  Although the budget would decrease slightly this year, 2.3 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, it would see a real increase of about a half a percent over the remainder of the next five years. The Pentagon has taken a hard look at its priorities and scaled back some of its most pie-in-the-sky projects, but its actions have not impacted the country’s ability to fight a war.  "This budget is a first step — it's a down payment — as we transition from an emphasis on today's wars to preparing for future challenges," said Dempsey, "This budget does not lead to a military in decline." In fact, the Pentagon document, titled “Defense Budget Priorities and Choices,” notes that “Even with these reductions, the Army and Marine Corps will be larger than they were in 2001.” If anything, the debt debate has provided the Pentagon with a long overdue opportunity to reexamine its priorities and reevaluate its strategy in light of ongoing and realistic threats.  The last Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) punted on the subject, recommending that the Pentagon choose to prepare for everything short of a zombie invasion.
• Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Applauds Pentagon Strategy Review, Urges Further Steps
  01/05/2012 01:43:10 PM EST
  The Center released the following statement in response to the Pentagon's new strategic guidance and remarks by the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs... The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation today applauds the Pentagon’s decision to scale back Pentagon spending in a way that best provides for the strength and security of our country, but labeled the move “only a step in the right direction.” “After an unfocused Quadrennial Defense Review, the Pentagon has come together to provide a cohesive look at the military we will need long after the current wars come to an end,” said Laicie Olson, Senior Policy Analyst, “Further reductions, if similarly strategy-driven, could be made while fully protecting the United States from military threats." While the full details of the plan will not be released until the Pentagon presents the Fiscal Year 2013 budget to Congress,  the President outlined their direction today, stating that “over the past ten years, since 9/11, our defense budget grew at an extraordinary pace.  Over the next ten years, the growth in the defense budget will slow, but the fact of the matter is this—it will still grow... In fact, the defense budget will still be larger than it was toward the end of the Bush Administration.” Olson adds that “The proposed cuts are still modest compared to drawdowns after Korea, Vietnam and the Cold War.” The question now is whether the Pentagon will eliminate a host of outdated and unnecessary programs that still exist. “President Obama was right to note that our national security will be better served by getting rid of outdated Cold War-era systems so that we can invest in the capabilities we need for the future,” said Kingston Reif, Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation. “To avoid excessive cuts to essential programs, the Pentagon must cut the bloated U.S. nuclear weapons budget, which is irrelevant to emerging 21st century security priorities such as terrorism, cybersecurity, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.” The new Pentagon strategy document states, using italics for emphasis, “it is possible that our deterrence goals can be achieved with a smaller nuclear force, which would reduce the number of nuclear weapons in our inventory as well as their role in U.S. national security strategy.” Added Reif: "Further reductions in U.S. nuclear forces and scaling back planned investments in new strategic nuclear weapons systems and warhead production facilities make both strategic and economic sense” The Center anticipates the release of full budget details, and awaits a significant adjustment in both strategy and savings.
• House Republicans Push Spending Bill Ahead
  12/15/2011 04:18:06 PM EST
  Late last night (about 11:40pm) House Republicans introduced a $915 billion spending bill in a power play that would keep the government in operation beyond the weekend.  The maneuver comes as a response to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's attempt, in conjunction with the White House, to put off movement on nine unfinished 2012 appropriations bills until Congress has agreed upon a separate package to extend a payroll tax break and jobless benefits.   Senate leaders fear, with good reason, that the House will simply pass its version of key measures and adjourn for the year, leaving the Senate a take-it-or-leave it choice. The White House has asked Congress to pass a stop-gap spending bill to provide more time to work out a compromise on some controversial provisions included in the spending package, but Republicans have not indicated they would advance such a bill. Despite some controversial provisions, however, including those on travel to Cuba, the measure is understood to be relatively close to the expected conference agreement. "We've got an agreement between appropriators in the House and the Senate - Democrats and Republicans - on a bipartisan bill to fund our government. We believe that the responsible thing to do is to move this," said House Speaker John Boehner. The defense bill advanced by House Republicans would provide $518.1 billion for the Pentagon base budget, an increase of $5.1 billion over fiscal year 2011 (fy11) and a reduction of $20.8 billion below the President’s request.  Senate Appropriations Committee-approved language would provide $513 billion, a number achieved largely through the shifting of funds from the base account to the war account. In addition, the bill would provide $115.1 billion for ongoing war operations largely in Afghanistan, $2.8 billion below the President’s request and $43 billion below fy11 appropriations.  The Senate Appropriations Committee would fund the wars at $117.5 billion. A final agreement is expected in the coming days.
• CNN Interview on China's Nukes
  12/01/2011 09:43:55 AM EST
  I was asked to comment yesterday on the recent Washington Post story detailing a study by a group of Georgetown University students that uses some questionable sources (including Wikipedia and the Chinese version of "24") to conclude that China's nuclear arsenal may be much larger than well-established estimates.   See my response and The Situation Room's piece on the matter below. And for more information on the issue, check out Ulrika and Kingston's post from earlier this month.